Friday Box Office: SuperBad #1 Again
The raunchy Judd Apatow-produced teen comedy SUPERBAD will, as expected, hold off flock of “lame duck” releases for a second consecutive weekend win. Written by KNOCKED UP star Seth Rogan and directed by Greg Mottola (THE DAYTRIPPERS), SUPERBAD added another $5M on Friday, bringing its 8-day cume to $55.5M. I’m targeting a 15.5M 3-day, which would be an estimated 53% weekend drop.
The rest of the top 5 is a photo finish both for the day and the weekend, but I’m giving the Lionsgate action pic WAR the Friday edge with approximately $3.4M, followed by THE BOURNE ULTIMATUM (Universal) with $3.3M, Universal’s MR. BEAN’S HOLIDAY with a better-then-expected $3.25M and holdover RUSH HOUR 3 (New Line) with an estimated $3.2M. Currently, I’m calling for BOURNE and RH3 to finish #2 and #3 for the weekend with $12.1M and $11M respectively. Rowan Atkinson’s BEAN will likely finish fourth with $10M, and the Jason Statham-Jet Li flick will finish with a softer $9.7M. (This is a jumbled field, and there’s probably a higher margin of error in these 3-day numbers than usual.)
As for the other new wide releases, THE NANNY DIARIES (MGM/Weinstein) will miss the top 5 altogether. The Scarlett Johansson vehicle managed only $2.8M on Friday, and it’s headed for about $7.8M by Monday morning. The well-reviewed RESURRECTING THE CHAMP (Yari Film Group) opened in disappointing fashion with just $500,000 on opening day and $1.5M or so for the weekend. That’s a 3-day PTA of just under $1,000. Universal’s ILLEGAL TENDER is on a more limited 512 screens, and it grabbed an estimated $450,000 on Friday, which will translate to a possible $1.3M weekend. That would be a solid $2,500 PTA.
Finally, the misguided SEPTEMBER DAWN (Slowhand Releasing), a dark western about a brutal massacre in the mid-19th
century starring Jon Voight, sold just under $200,000 in tickets on Friday, and it will struggle to a tick better than $700,000 for its opening 3-day.
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Box Office Tracking: 3:10 to Yuma headed for $13M-$16M; Shoot Em Up possible 2nd
At a glance, it looks like 3:10 TO YUMA (Lionsgate) should edge SHOOT ‘EM UP (New Line) for the weekend box office win, and the Western will probably carry the day, but it’s less of a sure thing than you might think.
Neither movie will be a box office juggernaut. YUMA has Un-Aided Awareness of just 4% compared to 2% for the super-charged, over-the-top action pic, and the Western also has better Total Awareness 48%-44%, but, if you go inside the numbers, 60% of Under 25 Males are Aware of SHOOT ‘EM UP.
Under 25 Males are “the money demo.” If they say that they’re interested, they will show up. Young males are incredibly reliable. Studio execs sleep well on Thursday night when their Friday release is scoring in the tracking with Under 25 Males. In terms of Overall Definite Interest, however, SHOOT ‘EM UP holds a 31% -29% advantage.
Still in the First Choice column, 3:10 TO YUMA is at 11% compared to 5% for SHOOT ‘EM UP. Among Males Under 25, SHOOT ‘EM UP leads 10% to 9%, but the James Mangold-directed Western remake leads the other 3 First Choice demos (Males 25 Plus – 23%-6%, Females Under 25 – 3%-2%, Females 25 Plus – 9%-1%).
So, YUMA skews much older. Let’s call them “the John Wayne generation.” If you’re old enough to have seen TRUE GRIT in theatres (60 ), you’re thrilled about 3:10 TO YUMA, and it might be the first movie you see all year. (I know he won the Oscar in 1969 for it, but this was far from being a quintessential John Wayne Western), If you were old enough to have seen Clint Eastwood’s Oscar winning UNFORGIVEN in theatres (30 ), you definitely might see Russell Crowe and Christian Bale this weekend. But, if SHANGHAI NOON is your idea of a Western, you’re more likely to buy a ticket to see SHOOT ‘EM UP instead.
I’d love to think that the Western can make a comeback, but, realistically, the genre has been dormant for a very long time.
Before anybody complains, BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN is not a real western. It’s a great film, but not a Western. I’m also excluding movies like SHANGHAI NOON and BACK TO THE FUTURE PART III, because, although they are technically Westerns, they have nothing to do with the genre.
TOP 10 OPENING WEEKENDS FOR WESTERNS RELEASED IN THE PAST 20 YEARS
1. Maverick (1990) - $17.2M
2. Unforgiven (1992) - $15M
3. Open Range (2003) - $14M
4. The Missing (2003) - $10.8M
5. Young Guns II (1990) - $8M
6. Wyatt Earp (1994) - $7.5M
7. Young Guns (1988) - $7M
8. The Quick & the Dead (1995) - $6.5M
9. Posse (1993) - $5M
10. American Outlaws (2001) - $4.8M
*Dances with Wolves (1990) – 14 screens - $600,000
Can the Western be relevant for a new generation of movie fans? I’d love to think so. 3:10 TO YUMA is a terrific film featuring 2 of our best actors. It’s riding a wave of positive reviews, and the word-of-mouth is very positive. I’m forecasting $13M-$16M for this excellent Western, and I think it will have very good legs. (The 25 Plus crowd never turns up en masse on opening weekend. They’ll “trickle” in for weeks.)
Meanwhile, WAR (Lionsgate), released just a couple of weeks ago on August 24, is a pretty decent comparable for SHOOT ‘EM UP. The Jason Statham-Jet Li action flick opened with a $9.8M weekend, and it actually had slightly better tracking than SHOOT ‘EM UP on its opening day.
WAR leads SHOOT ‘EM UP in Total Awareness 59%-44%, Definite Interest 37%-31% and Overall First Choice 5%-2%. Still, that weekend was much more crowded with 4 other wide releases (3 if you leave out the pathetic SEPTEMBER DAWN). Given all of this, I say that SHOOT ‘EM UP is headed for $8M-$11M and a 2nd place finish for the 3-day, likely holding off a fast-fading HALLOWEEN.
The other new wide release (about 650 screens) is THE BROTHERS SOLOMON from Sony/Screen Gems. This is a classic “dump” for Sony. It’s Bob Odenkirk’s follow-up to last year’s disastrous LET’S GO TO PRISON ($4.6M cume). It’s been a precipitous fall for Odenkirk, whose MR. SHOW WITH BOB & DAVE is considered a classic.
THE BROTHERS SOLOMON has only 32% Awareness, 16% Definite Interest and a 2% First Choice. With these tracking scores, this comedy, written by and starring SATURDAY NIGHT LIVE’s Will Forte, will probably finish in the $2M-$5M range.
Read More at Fantasy Moguls.
Saturday Box Office: 3:10 To Yuma w/$5.2M; Shoot ‘em Up #6
James Mangold’s remake of the classic Western 3:10 TO YUMA rustled up another $5.23M on Saturday, and the well-reviewed genre pic will finish the weekend with a respectable $14.23M. That’s right in line with industry expectations, but Lionsgate was almost certainly hoping for an upside surprise. That number will give YUMA the 3rd-best opening weekend for a true Western in the past 20 years, trailing only 1990’s MAVERICK ($17.2M) and UNFORGIVEN, which opened to $15M back in 1992.
I suspect this picture will hold exceedingly well in coming weeks because it skews 25 , and that crowd never turns out en masse for opening weekend, but it will be an uphill battle at the box office. 3:10 TO YUMA could conceivably get to $35M domestic, but its budget was a reported $50M. Year-end recognition from critics organizations and some Golden Globe and Oscar buzz would dramatically improve the commercial prospects of this title, but it may have been released to early to hold onto many screens into the awards season.
HALLOWEEN (MGM/Weinstein) finished 2nd for the day with $3.84M, and Michael Myers is #2 for the weekend as well with an estimated $8.79M. SUPERBAD (Sony) picked up $2.9M on Saturday, and its likely $7.31M weekend lifts the Judd Apatow-produced, Seth Rogen-written comedy above the $100M mark. THE BOURNE ULTIMATUM (Universal) was 5th on Saturday with $2.44M, but the Matt Damon thriller will most likely be #4 for the 3-day with $5.89M or so. Holdover BALLS OF FURY (Rogue Releasing) was stronger than expected Saturday with $2.47M, but it appears that the ping-pong comedy will be forced to settle for 5th for this frame.
New Line’s SHOOT ‘EM UP was up by a few percent Friday-to-Saturday, but its estimated $2.07M made it only #7 for the day. I’m projecting that the Clive Owen-Paul Giamatti action pic will have banked $5.73M by Monday morning, making it only the 6th-best 3-day performer. That is, however, a far better fate than THE BROTHERS SOLOMON (Sony) has suffered. Playing on 700 screens, this misguided comedy will wrap the weekend with just $510,000 or $728 per location.
As for new specialty releases, the PTA winner will be a surprise. John Turturro’s ROMANCE & CIGARETTES, a musical starring James Gandolfini, Kate Winslett and Susan Sarandon, opened on 1 screen on Friday, and the film has grabbed a blazing 3-day weekend PTA of $16,000. Because this movie is being released independently, I didn’t catch it in time for my column Friday night. The long-shelved IDP comedy FIERCE PEOPLE will likely finish #2 in PTA followed by Thinkfilm’s Oscar contender IN THE SHADOW OF THE MOON from Ron Howard, the Tibetan fantasy film MILAREPA: MAGICIAN (Luminous Velocity) and 3:10 TO YUMA.
Read More at Fantasy Moguls.
Friday Box Office: 3:10 To Yuma w/$5M; Shoot ‘Em Up #5 for Weekend
As expected, 3:10 TO YUMA has won the 3-day weekend. After grabbing just over $5M on Friday, it will likely top $15M for the weekend.
Oscar winner Russell Crowe and Batman Begins star Christian Bale have lassoed the Friday box office crown, and 3:10 TO YUMA (Lionsgate) will ride away with a surprisingly easy 3-day weekend win. The James Mangold-directed remake of the classic Western of the same name grabbed just over $5M on Friday, and appears to be headed for a weekend of $15.15M. If the number holds, 3:10 TO YUMA will have delivered the 2nd-best 3-day opening for a Western in the past 20 years.
TOP 5 OPENING WEEKENDS FOR WESTERNS RELEASED IN THE PAST 20 YEARS
1. Maverick (1990) - $17.2M
2. 3:10 to Yuma - $15.15M (projected)
3. Unforgiven (1992) - $15M
4. Open Range (2003) - $14M
5. The Missing (2003) - $10.8M
Michael Myers, as expected, has no legs. After a $3M take on Friday, the slasher flick HALLOWEEN (MGM/Weinstein) will limp to a meager $8.55M weekend. That’s a huge fall of 72% or so from its opening 3-day (although, to be fair, it was a 4-day weekend which means a very strong Sunday). Still, enough blood will flow for Rob Zombie’s remake/re-invention to hold onto 2nd place for the weekend.
By Monday morning, SUPERBAD (Sony) will have passed the $100M mark. The Judd Apatow-produced comedy generated $2.2M in Friday ticket sales, which should translate to a $7.37M weekend. Meanwhile, Jason Bourne will finish #4 for the 3-day, and THE BOURNE ULTIMATUM (Universal) will have surpassed $210M by the end of the weekend. The Paul Greengrass-directed thriller added $1.7M Friday (#5 for the day), but it should reach an estimated $6.11M for the 3-day.
Rough weekend for the other 2 wide studio releases. SHOOT ‘EM UP (New Line), the super-charged action pic starring Clive Owen and Paul Giamatti, has been crushed by the male-driven 3:10 TO YUMA. It was #4 for the day with about $1.96M, but will finish a disappointing 5th for the 3-day. SHOOT ‘EM UP will wrap up the frame at $5.73M or so. Sony/Screen Gems dumped a misguided comedy called THE BROTHERS SOLOMON on 700 screens, and it may be on DVD by next weekend after a Friday per theatre average of just $271 for $190,000 total. It’s headed for a weekend of a mere $550,000.
Among new limited releases, the Tibetan fantasy film MILAREPA: MAGICIAN (Luminous Velocity) set the pace on Friday with $3,147 on its single screen. We’ll see how it holds through the weekend, but for now, I’m tentatively awarding it the weekend PTA crown with about $11,000. I’m looking for IDP Films’ long-shelved FIERCE PEOPLE to finish the weekend at #2 in PTA at just under $11,000, followed by an $8,000 PTA for THE HUNTING PARTY (MGM/Weinstein) starring Richrd Gere. Thinkfilm’s Sundance-winning doc IN THE SHADOW OF THE MOON from Ron Howard will likely finish 4th with $7,000, and 3:10 to Yuma should round out the top 5.
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