The Jonas Brothers: Ready to Rock This Summer
Squealing is about to be taken to a whole new level.
The frenzy that perpetually surrounds the Jonas Brothers will reach a fever pitch this summer, thanks to Joe, Nick and Kevin starring in the Disney Channel movie Camp Rock, premiering June 20, as well as the release of their third album, A Little Bit Longer, on August 12.
“Girls chase our cars after shows as it is!” Nick tells TV Guide in its June 16 issue regarding the expected rise in preteen adulation.
Let’s just hope they don’t thrash their cars out of envy when they see the brothers’ Camp Rock costar, Demi Lovato, not only gracing the magazine’s cover with the boys but touching Joe’s shoulder!
Let the squealing begin!
Officially Official: Late Night Falls for Fallon
Jimmy Fallon will be the new Conan O'Brien, who will be the new Jay Leno.
As for the old Jay Leno? That's for another press conference.
Today it was NBC announcing what had been long suspected, and outright leaked: that Fallon will assume O'Brien's Late Night hosting chair once O'Brien assumes Leno's Tonight Show hosting chair next year.
"It's a comedian's dream to get this job, to work with writers and try to be funny every night," Fallon said from NBC's fabled "30 Rock" headquarters, where he used to star on Saturday Night Live, and where he'll star on Late Night.
Late Night executive producer Lorne Michaels said the Fallon era "probably" will begin in the first six months of 2009.
"I think when the transition happens it'll be as seamless as possible," Michaels said.
Leno was the 800-pound gorilla at 30 Rock, there but not there.
The longtime late-night ratings champ, who set his exit date for Tonight back in 2005, has been rumored to be rethinking retirement, and maybe even taking his act to another network. NBC execs had nothing to say today about Leno's future at their network, other than to say the diplomatically correct thing: "Everyone wants Jay Leno to be part of the NBC family."
Fallon, voted most likely to succeed David Letterman in kindergarten, comes to Late Night by way of SNL, where he starred for eight years, and the movies (Taxi, Fever Pitch).
At 33, he is already three years older and infinitely more well-known than O'Brien was when he took over for Letterman in 1993. Fallon said he'd recently returned to stand-up to get in shape for his new gig.
"I'm very excited about this…It's going to be grind, from all the advice I've heard from everybody," Fallon said. "I'm ready to work really hard."
Today's press conference was batting practice for Fallon, who responded to nearly every question with a quip.
- How much was he getting paid? "They're paying me enough," he said. "I just want to live comfortably. In Dubai."
- How long was his contract? "150 years," he said, adding that he had the Willard Scott Today Show deal.
- How was he planning to follow O'Brien? "I'm going to dye my hair red," he said, "and get lifts in my shoes."
But seriously, folks, Fallon said he wasn't planning to reinvent the talk-show format. Late Night will continue to tape in O'Brien's old studio and will continue to be called Late Night, "changing the With Conan O'Brien part," he added.
Today's NBC press conference took the place of what would normally be the presentation of the network's fall schedule. Breaking with tradition, NBC announced its 2008-09 plans last month. Not that the Peacock was without other, non-Fallon news. The network announced a new matrimonial-minded reality series, Momma's Boys, to be executive produced by Ryan Seacrest and reality veteran Andrew Glassman.
Elsewhere, Leno's still-kicking Tonight Show announced that country singer Dwight Yoakam's scheduled appearance on Thursday will make him the franchise's most-booked musical guest ever, with 24 appearances.
Box Office Tracking: Heartbreak Kid soft; Seeker headed for $5M-$8M
What ever happened to The Farrelly Brothers?
Bobby and Peter exploded onto the scene back in 1994 with the landmark rude comedy Dumb & Dumber. This gem delivered $127M domestic with lines like, According to the map, we’ve only gone 4 inches,” and “Wanna hear the most annoying sound in the world?,” and “Check out the funbags on that hosehound.” You won’t get that sort of smart dialogue from scribes like William Monahan, Akiva Goldsman or Paul Haggis. In fact, neither The Polish Brothers, The Wachowski Brothers or even The Coen Brothers can match-up with The Farrellys, crude quip for crude quip, obscene sight gag for obscene sight gag.
They followed Dumb & Dumber with the every-bit-as-funny Kingpin (although it managed just $25M domestic despite a remarkable performance by Bill Murray’s comb-over swirl in the climactic bowling scene). Then came the infamous Cameron Diaz hair gel scene in There’s Something About Mary ($176.5M domestic). After the somewhat-less-funny, but still ticket-selling Me, Myself & Irene ($90.5M domestic), there came a series of a lot-less-funny and fewer-ticket-selling disappointments.
2001 - Osmosis Jones - $5.2M opening ($13.6M cume)
2001 – Shallow Hal - $22.5M opening ($70.8M cume)
2003 – Stuck On You - $9.4M opening ($33.8M cume)
2005 – Fever Pitch - $12.4M opening ($42M cume)
More…
When did the Farrelly “funny train” come off the tracks? It was the moment they started worry about redeeming messages. By all accounts, Bobby and Peter successfully turn away from any sort of moral in Heartbreak Kid (Paramount), a remake of Elaine May’s funny 1972 relationship romp. The word is that this is a funny, outrageously raunchy movie.
It would be tough for the Farrellys to miss here with a lead whose last 5 movies have combined to rake in $855M domestic. In fact, Ben Stiller’s last 12 wide release movies (since Meet the Parents in 2000) have averaged a $24M opening. He’s money in the bank.
ALL-TIME TOP 10 BEN STILLER OPENINGS
1. Madagascar - $47.2M opening
2. Meet the Fockers - $46.1M opening
3. Night at the Museum - $30.4M opening
4. Dodgeball - $30M opening
5. Meet the Parents - $28.6M opening
6. Starsky & Hutch - $28.1M opening
7. Along Came Polly - $27.7M opening
8. Zoolander - $15.5M opening
9. There’s Something About Mary - $13.7M opening
10. Mystery Men - $10M
This is a Ben, Bobby and Peter reunion, having already teamed on the mega-hit There’s Something About Mary.
Surprisingly, the tracking for The Heartbreak Kid looks soft when compared to the tracking for the R-rated relationship/comedy blockbuster Knocked Up, and even soft by Good Luck Chuck standards, but I’ve learned not to bet
against a Paramount release generated by Dreamworks.
2007 RELEASES FROM PARAMOUNT PICTURES
- DreamWorks projects are underlined -
1/5/07 – Freedom Writers - $36.6M cume ($9.4M opening)
2/9/07 – Norbit - $95.3M cume ($34.1M opening)
3/2/07 – Zodiac - $33M cume ($13.3M opening)
3/23/07 – Shooter - $47M cume ($14.5M opening)
3/30/07 – Blades of Glory - $118.2M cume ($33M opening)
4/13/07– Disturbia - $80.1M cume ($22.2M opening)
4/27/07 – Next - $18M cume ($7.1M opening)
5/18/07 – Shrek the Third - $321M cume ($121.6M opening)
7/3/07 – Transformers - $315.4M cume ($70.5M opening)
8/3/07 – Hot Rod - $13.9M cume ($5.3M opening)
8/10/07 – Stardust - $37.8M cume ($9.1M opening)
The bottom line is that, if it weren’t for Steven Spielberg, David Geffenand Jeffrey Katzenberg, 2007 would be a dismal year for Paramount and the Melrose Avenue gang.
As of Sunday (9/30), Heartbreak Kid had only 2% Un-Aided Awareness compared to 18% for Knocked Up prior to its release and 7% for Good Luck Chuck on the Sunday prior to its opening. The Stiller film trails both of the comparables in Total Awareness with 70% (Knocked Up was at 81% and Chuck was at 78%) and Definite Interest at 31% (Good Luck Chuck was at 40% and Knocked Up went off at 37%).
Here’s how the pre-opening First Choice numbers stack up as of Sunday.
OVERALL FIRST CHOICE
Knocked Up – 16%
Good Luck Chuck – 15%
Heartbreak Kid – 8%
FIRST CHOICE – MALES UNDER 25
Knocked Up – 18%
Good Luck Chuck – 14%
Heartbreak Kid – 5%
FIRST CHOICE – MALES 25 PLUS
Knocked Up – 11%
Good Luck Chuck – 10%
Heartbreak Kid – 5%
FIRST CHOICE – FEMALES UNDER 25
Good Luck Chuck – 25%
Knocked Up – 22%
Heartbreak Kid – 8%
FIRST CHOICE – FEMALES 25 PLUS
Heartbreak Kid – 16%
Knocked Up – 13%
Good Luck Chuck – 9%
This would normally spell disaster, but Dreamworks/Paramount is spending its money late, and I’m told that as of today (Thursday), Heartbreak Kid’s Total Aware is above 85% and Overall First Choice is at 18%. Still, The Farrelly Brothers plus Ben Stiller plus Dreamworks does not necessarily add up to a “slam dunk.”
My gut is telling me that this movie has been marketed in the wrong way. We just finished the summer of Knocked Up and Superbad. Raunchy, obscene, over-the-top dirty is what is selling. That’s not how Heartbreak Kid is being sold. TV ads and trailers and print ads make it look like a sweet, cute, silly, “slapsticky” date movie. This sales pitch is working with Females 25 Plus with a First Choice number of 16% in that demo. Males just aren’t very into the movie. If you’ve got the next great “raunchfest” starring Ben Stiller and directed by the Dumb & Dumber guys, why sell the movie like Music & Lyrics or License to Wed.
Knocked Up enjoyed a $30.7M opening weekend, so it looks impossible for Heartbreak Kid to match that. Good Luck Chuck managed $13.6M on its opening weekend, the quickly improving Heartbreak Kid tracking numbers along with the serious Dreamworks/Paramount marketing muscle, should lift this one considerably higher than that figure. I’m predicting a somewhat disappointing $21M-$24M for The Heartbreak Kid in its opening 3 days.
36-year old director David Cunningham, whose last major project was the well-received ABC-TV movie The Path to 9/11, was at the helm for The Seeker: The Dark is Rising (Fox), which will bow at just over 3,100 locations Friday. It’s the first film based on Susan Cooper’s series of books called The Dark is Rising Sequence. The lead role is played by kid actor Alexander Ludwig, and the cast also includes Ian McShane (Deadwood) and Frances Conroy (Six Feet Under).
With its PG-rating, youthful leads and supernatural theme, the best comparable for The Seeker is this spring’s The Invisible. Prior to its opening, The Invisible had 10% Un-Aided Awareness, 65% Total Aware, 25% Definite Interest and a 3% First Choice. That’s markedly better than The Seeker, which has 1% Un-Aided Awareness, 36% Total Aware, 25% Definite Interest and 3% First Choice.
There’s just no traction in the marketplace for this one. The Invisible opened with $7.7M, and that is probably the high end of the correct range for The Seeker: The Dark is Rising. I’m calling for $5M-$8M.
The third wide release this weekend is Sony’s Feel the Noise. This urban drama, about a young rapper in the Bronx trying to make a name for himself, stars Omarion Grandberry, a former member of the band B2K, which was featured in 2005’s You Got Served. This is a niche movie, but the movie will definitely play at the appropriate theatres in the appropriate neighborhoods.
Sony scored big early this year with the urban-themed Stomp the Yard ($21.8M opening - $61.3M cume), but that won’t be duplicated here. Stomp had buzz with 13% Un-Aided Awareness and moviegoers knew it was coming with a 65% Total Aware. Feel the Noise has just 2% Un-Aided and 28% Total Awareness. With a 4% First Choice, Feel the Noise is likely headed for just $3M-$6M.
Here are my Final Predictions for October 5-7.
1. The Heartbreak Kid - $22.75M
2. The Game Plan - $12.6M
3. The Kingdom - $9M
4. The Seeker: The Dark is Rising - $7.5M
5. Feel the Noise - $4.8M
6. Resident Evil: Extinction - $4M
7. Good Luck Chuck - $3.1M
8. 3:10 to Yuma - $2.8M
9. The Jane Austen Book Club - $2.1M
10. The Brave One - $1.9M
Read the whole story at Fantasy Moguls.