Box Office Predictions: Can Pirates 3 Overtake Spidey 3?
I had a very good week last week. I was right on the top 3, and was close in their totals. I over shot Shrek the Third a bit, but while I had it at $130 million it made $123 which is very close. Spider-Man 3 did a little better than I thought it would in its third week. I was less than $1 million away from the total for 28 Weeks Later. I had Georgia Rule and Disturbia switched at #4 and #5, but I was almost right on for their totals. Now we get the third and final of the May big 3. Once again, the question remains. Not will Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End be #1? The real question is whether it will pass Spider-Man 3’s record breaking weekend. Read on to find out:
1. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End. Once again, an easy pick for #1. It is hard though to pick a total. For one thing, it technically opened on Thursday night and it is a four day weekend. So it is hard to predict what its total weekend Box Office will be as opposed to just the Friday - Sunday total. I am looking at the four day weekend as a whole. Pirates has the problem of being the third in a series of May movies that have been disappointing. Spider-Man 3 and Shrek the Third have made a ton of money, but neither has gotten great reviews and neither has been seen as being nearly as good as the second films in those series. Pirates 2 was a disappointment last summer, despite the fact that it was the highest grossing film of the year. Could that disappointment keep people away from Pirates 3? It has the advantage of being the conclusion of a story arc. #2 ended with a cliff hanger, so despite the quality issues of the film, I assume people will want to find out what happens next (I know I fall into that category). It will make $160 million through Monday, but it won’t make as much Friday - Sunday as Spider-Man 3 did on its opening weekend.
2. Shrek the Third. It got off to a great start last week with $123 million. But now it faces stiff competition in week #2 (unlike Spider-Man 3 which didn’t face competition until week #3). Even without the competition you should expect Shrek the Third to fall down quite a bit as they always do and it isn’t getting great reviews. That being said, it is Memorial Day weekend and everyone is going to go to the movies. Not everyone saw it opening weekend (lots of people want to avoid those crowds). And not everyone wants to see Pirates 3. So there is a sizable audience for Shrek the Third and it will bring in an impressive $55 million.
3. Spider-Man 3. After three weeks it is already up to $286 million, good for #27 all time in the U.S. It lost a smaller percentage (50) of its audience from week 2 to week 3 than it did (61) from week 1 to week 2, despite the competition from Shrek the Third. That is a good sign for week #4. But it faces even stiffer competition. Last week it made $29 million. If it has a similar fate as last week it will drop down to $15 million. If it does, it will jump up to #23 and if it has an even better but still plausible weekend it could get up to #21. If it wants to get into the top 10 of all time, it needs to really have staying power through out the summer. I think it has a chance. It makes $17 million over the four day weekend despite the competition.
4. Bug. This is the only other movie opening in wide release this week. So I give them some credit for that. But it hasn’t exactly had a ton of commercials. It has had some, but not a lot. Everyone heading to the movies this weekend will be heading to other movies. But if someone wants to see something new, and has already seen Spider-Man 3 and Shrek the Third, and wants to avoid the long lines at Pirates 3, they might head for Bug. It is a horror film so it is unlike the other top 3 films out there. Two weeks ago, 28 Weeks Later opened with just under $10 million. I see Bug having a similar fate with $8 million.
5. 28 Weeks Later. It has had a decent run with $20 million so far. But it shouldn’t do very well with all the competition this week. It makes $3 million.
That’s it. Check back next week to see how I did.
Box Office Predictions: Will Shrek Beat Spider-Man 3’s Opening Weekend Record?
After two weeks of easily winning the Box Office race, Spider-Man 3 finally faces some competition this week with the release of the second of three #3s in May, Shrek the Third. With only one new film opening in wide release, it should be an easy week to pick the top 5. But, the total amount brought in by each movie is the hard part. Can Shrek the Third eclipse Spider-Man 3 for the highest opening 3-day weekend total? How much more will Spider-Man 3 make now that it has real competition? Read on to find out:
1. Shrek the Third. Again, it is a “no brainer” of a pick for #1 this week. After all, it is the third in a highly successful series. In fact, Shrek 2 is the third highest grossing film in U.S. history with $436 million, only trailing Titanic and Star Wars. So it is obvious to say that the third in the series is eagerly anticipated. But the question remains, how eagerly is it being anticipated? As much as Spider-Man 3? I somehow doubt it, despite the fact that Shrek 2 made way more than Spider-Man
2. Spider-Man has the fan boys, more so than Shrek. It is more of an event film, particularly when it comes to the opening weekend. I can see Shrek the Third making more than Spider-Man 3 in the long run, but will it have as hot an opening? I’m not sure. Shrek 2, only (and I use the word “only” very loosely) brought in $128 million its opening weekend, and that was for five days. Spider-Man 3 made $151 million in three days! There was a real let down as many fans were disappointed in the movie. That could hurt Shrek the Third if people don’t want to fight the crowds opening weekend after being disappointed once this month. I just don’t see it doing quite as well. But it will still be a huge opening. It will bring in $130 million in three days, more than Shrek 2 made in five.
2. Spider-Man 3. After the biggest opening weekend ever, Spider-Man 3 lost 61% of its audience in its second weekend. That being said, it still made an astounding $58 million, which most movies would love as a grand Box Office total. Even many blockbusters would love it as an opening weekend total. For Spider-Man 3 it may have been a disappointing second week. But it is still well on its way to being a huge success. In fact, after just two weeks, it is the 40th highest grossing film of all time. After one more weekend it should be up to #30. If it drops down another 61%, it will bring in about $24 million. But I see it dropping a bit more than that from the strong competition. It will make $20 million.
3. 28 Weeks Later. The sequel to 28 Days Later got off to a decent start with just under $10 million last week. It didn’t do quite as well as the original which opened with just over $10 million, but it was very close. The original dropped down to $6 million for the second weekend, and I see this one doing the same.
4. Georgia Rule. It had a rather small opening weekend with $6.7 million. It hasn’t gotten great reviews and shouldn’t do much its second week either. It will bring in $4 million.
5. Disturbia. Disturbia has had a pretty solid run. It has made $66 million over five weekends, remaining in the top 5 that whole time. It will once again, its last weekend in the top 5 making only $3 million.
There are five other films opening this weekend, but all are in limited release as the studios don’t have any guts. Check back next week to see how I did.