Friday Box Office: The Bourne Ultimatum on track to $72M Opening Weekend
Universal’s The Bourne Ultimatum grabbed $25.5M on Friday, which should translate to a staggering $72M opening weekend. That’s easily the best opening in the franchise, topping The Bourne Identity’s $27.1M and The Bourne Supremacy’s $52.5M. This also marks the best opening weekend of Matt Damon’s career.
Last week’s big winner The Simpsons Movie is taking a larger than expected drop after a meteoric $102.9M in its opening 7 days. The big screen version of Fox’s long-running series has added an estimated $8M on Friday, but the animated flick is headed for only $25M or so for the weekend, which is a massive 66% drop from its opening. Disney’s Underdog, which wasn’t screened for critics, is a surprise third with $4.1M on Friday, and, with a big Saturday and Sunday kiddie bounce, it should have $12.1M banked by Monday morning. I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry is a solid 4th with $3.3M today and an estimated $10.6M for the weekend.
Hot Rod and Bratz have both tanked. The Andy Samberg comedy from SNL producer Lorne Michaels stumbled out of the gates with only $2M, and it will manage only a meager $5.1M for the 3-day. Bratz, geared for preteen girls, could only drum up $1.75M to start the weekend, and it will finish the weekend with an estimated $4.4M.
Among limited releases, the Jennifer Lopez-produced El Cantante has a PTA of $1,600 or so, which gives it an estimated $850,000 on 542 screens. This biopic about salsa king Hector Lavoe should finish the weekend with something in the $2.5M range. Also scoring well was Becoming Jane starring Anne Hathaway with an average of just over $3,000 on its 100 screens and an estimated $310,000. This Jane Austen biopic will likely bank about $1.1M during its opening 3-day with an aggressive expansion set for next weekend.
You can read more in-depth box office coverage at FantasyMoguls.com.
Friday Box Office: SuperBad #1 Again
The raunchy Judd Apatow-produced teen comedy SUPERBAD will, as expected, hold off flock of “lame duck” releases for a second consecutive weekend win. Written by KNOCKED UP star Seth Rogan and directed by Greg Mottola (THE DAYTRIPPERS), SUPERBAD added another $5M on Friday, bringing its 8-day cume to $55.5M. I’m targeting a 15.5M 3-day, which would be an estimated 53% weekend drop.
The rest of the top 5 is a photo finish both for the day and the weekend, but I’m giving the Lionsgate action pic WAR the Friday edge with approximately $3.4M, followed by THE BOURNE ULTIMATUM (Universal) with $3.3M, Universal’s MR. BEAN’S HOLIDAY with a better-then-expected $3.25M and holdover RUSH HOUR 3 (New Line) with an estimated $3.2M. Currently, I’m calling for BOURNE and RH3 to finish #2 and #3 for the weekend with $12.1M and $11M respectively. Rowan Atkinson’s BEAN will likely finish fourth with $10M, and the Jason Statham-Jet Li flick will finish with a softer $9.7M. (This is a jumbled field, and there’s probably a higher margin of error in these 3-day numbers than usual.)
As for the other new wide releases, THE NANNY DIARIES (MGM/Weinstein) will miss the top 5 altogether. The Scarlett Johansson vehicle managed only $2.8M on Friday, and it’s headed for about $7.8M by Monday morning. The well-reviewed RESURRECTING THE CHAMP (Yari Film Group) opened in disappointing fashion with just $500,000 on opening day and $1.5M or so for the weekend. That’s a 3-day PTA of just under $1,000. Universal’s ILLEGAL TENDER is on a more limited 512 screens, and it grabbed an estimated $450,000 on Friday, which will translate to a possible $1.3M weekend. That would be a solid $2,500 PTA.
Finally, the misguided SEPTEMBER DAWN (Slowhand Releasing), a dark western about a brutal massacre in the mid-19th
century starring Jon Voight, sold just under $200,000 in tickets on Friday, and it will struggle to a tick better than $700,000 for its opening 3-day.
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Friday Box Office: 3:10 To Yuma w/$5M; Shoot ‘Em Up #5 for Weekend
As expected, 3:10 TO YUMA has won the 3-day weekend. After grabbing just over $5M on Friday, it will likely top $15M for the weekend.
Oscar winner Russell Crowe and Batman Begins star Christian Bale have lassoed the Friday box office crown, and 3:10 TO YUMA (Lionsgate) will ride away with a surprisingly easy 3-day weekend win. The James Mangold-directed remake of the classic Western of the same name grabbed just over $5M on Friday, and appears to be headed for a weekend of $15.15M. If the number holds, 3:10 TO YUMA will have delivered the 2nd-best 3-day opening for a Western in the past 20 years.
TOP 5 OPENING WEEKENDS FOR WESTERNS RELEASED IN THE PAST 20 YEARS
1. Maverick (1990) - $17.2M
2. 3:10 to Yuma - $15.15M (projected)
3. Unforgiven (1992) - $15M
4. Open Range (2003) - $14M
5. The Missing (2003) - $10.8M
Michael Myers, as expected, has no legs. After a $3M take on Friday, the slasher flick HALLOWEEN (MGM/Weinstein) will limp to a meager $8.55M weekend. That’s a huge fall of 72% or so from its opening 3-day (although, to be fair, it was a 4-day weekend which means a very strong Sunday). Still, enough blood will flow for Rob Zombie’s remake/re-invention to hold onto 2nd place for the weekend.
By Monday morning, SUPERBAD (Sony) will have passed the $100M mark. The Judd Apatow-produced comedy generated $2.2M in Friday ticket sales, which should translate to a $7.37M weekend. Meanwhile, Jason Bourne will finish #4 for the 3-day, and THE BOURNE ULTIMATUM (Universal) will have surpassed $210M by the end of the weekend. The Paul Greengrass-directed thriller added $1.7M Friday (#5 for the day), but it should reach an estimated $6.11M for the 3-day.
Rough weekend for the other 2 wide studio releases. SHOOT ‘EM UP (New Line), the super-charged action pic starring Clive Owen and Paul Giamatti, has been crushed by the male-driven 3:10 TO YUMA. It was #4 for the day with about $1.96M, but will finish a disappointing 5th for the 3-day. SHOOT ‘EM UP will wrap up the frame at $5.73M or so. Sony/Screen Gems dumped a misguided comedy called THE BROTHERS SOLOMON on 700 screens, and it may be on DVD by next weekend after a Friday per theatre average of just $271 for $190,000 total. It’s headed for a weekend of a mere $550,000.
Among new limited releases, the Tibetan fantasy film MILAREPA: MAGICIAN (Luminous Velocity) set the pace on Friday with $3,147 on its single screen. We’ll see how it holds through the weekend, but for now, I’m tentatively awarding it the weekend PTA crown with about $11,000. I’m looking for IDP Films’ long-shelved FIERCE PEOPLE to finish the weekend at #2 in PTA at just under $11,000, followed by an $8,000 PTA for THE HUNTING PARTY (MGM/Weinstein) starring Richrd Gere. Thinkfilm’s Sundance-winning doc IN THE SHADOW OF THE MOON from Ron Howard will likely finish 4th with $7,000, and 3:10 to Yuma should round out the top 5.
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Box Office: Harry Potter adds $26.5M on Friday, $142.6M Estimated 5-day Total
HARRY POTTER & THE ORDER OF THE PHOENIX (Warner Bros) continued its strong run at the box office on Friday grabbing an estimated $26.5M, bringing its 3-day cume to just shy of $90M. That should put HP5 right at $80M for the traditional Fri thru Sun 3-day weekend, and it will give ORDER OF THE PHOENIX the biggest 5-day opening in the history of the franchise with an estimated $142.6M.
The second weekend of Michael Bay’s mega-hit TRANSFORMERS (Dreamworks/Paramount) is starting off with a solid $10.5M estimate for Friday. Early Saturday, Optimus Prime will fly past $200M domestic, and my studio sources are pointing to a $34M weekend, down just 52% from it’s opening 3-day. Remy and company has added another $5.5M Friday as Pixar’s RATATOUILLE tops the $130M mark. I’m expecting a weekend take of $17.2M for the critically-acclaimed animated film distributed by Disney, down only 41%. LIVE FREE OR DIE HARD (Fox) looks to be just under $3M to start the weekend, and, by Monday, the latest John McClane action pic will have banked a $9.65M 3-day and climbed past the $100M threshold. The Warner Bros misfire LICENSE TO WED added just $2.2M on Friday, and it will struggle to only $6.9M on its 2nd weekend.
For Friday and 3-Day Estimates for the top 14 films, you can visit FantasyMoguls.